2016 End Week 11 Power Ratings and Rankings: New England Tops, NO Sinks

New England jumps to the top, over an idle Atlanta. Seattle slides despite win and Cincinnati still in top ten despite dismal win-loss record and fading playoff prospects. Oakland is still ranked only 20th despite having the same record in the AFC as the Patriots. Apparent anomalies like this are best understood by understanding the kinds of biases that occur in non-data-driven rankings.

AnalyticalFootball NFL Power Ratings and Rankings 2016 End Week 11: Ratings are FIOTU (factoring in other team’s unit).
AnalyticalFootball NFL Power Ratings and Rankings 2016 End Week 11: Ratings are FIOTU (factoring in other team’s unit).

Which teams are overrated and which underrated?  The power of winning halo effect bias – the tendency to perceive winning teams as better – comes into view when anomalies against the power rankings are added. Below is a chart that shows, at the end of the week 11 games, that when we compare winning percentage compared to the AnalyticalFootball power ratings, Oakland and the Bengals stand at opposite ends of the spectrum.

all_team_over_versus_underrated_endweek11_2016

Looking at individual games in Week 11, Minnesota’s win was the most impressive, followed by Seattle and Washington. Detroit’s overall performance was also strong overall, but its rating of -99% for the running attack is a week low (21 carries for 14 yards against the Jags will do that)! Conversely, Jags get major credit for stopping the run. Standout passing performance belongs to Dak Prescott and the Cowboys, with a highly efficient game against a solid Baltimore pass defence.

2016 Week 11 Game Ratings by Team (100% equals "average performance") - taking into account quality of the opposing team's units
2016 Week 11 Game Ratings by Team (0% equals “average performance”) – taking into account quality of the opposing team’s units