Power Ratings

AnalyticalFootball power ratings are purely data driven ratings for each team (i.e. they are not adjusted to account for ad-hoc factors outside of the model nor do they incorporate “expert” opinion, etc). They are constructed based on an analysis of running and passing plays from scrimmage while taking into account the strength of the respective defensive or offensive unit they are facing. That is why we say that the AnalyticalFootball power ratings are FIOTU (factoring in opposing team unit) based.

The ratings are updated after every game, and put in the form of a % rating, with 0% representing the league average. Accordingly, power ratings above that level are above league average, below that level is below league average. The more a % rating is from the 0%, the greater the magnitude of superior (in the case of positive percentages) or inferior (in the case of negative percentages) performance.

Below are some additional components of the power ratings:

  • they take into account turnovers, penalties, “red zone” performance, etc.
  • they are segmented in offence and defence and are further segmented into run and pass
  • they do not take into account injuries/trades (e.g. if all-star QB breaks his leg, the pass ratings are not adjusted to his successor’s likely performance in follow-on weeks) and are therefore inherently based on history only
  • they do take into account several previous games performance, with more recent games being weighted more heavily than more distant past ones
  • do not take into account playoff or pre-season games